A MULTIDIMENSIONAL IMPACT EVALUATION OF THE NATIONAL POVERTY REDUCTION STRATEGY AND HUMAN CAPITAL INVESTMENT PROGRAM IN LUZON, PHILIPPINES
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.22452/jati.vol30no1.2Keywords:
impact evaluation, community-based monitoring system, poverty alleviation, economic developmentAbstract
Impact evaluation studies are often generic and susceptible to large sampling errors. Therefore, assessing impacts using small area configurations to analyse poverty alleviation and economic development is crucial, particularly in the poorest region of Luzon, Philippines. This study utilised randomised control trials, predictive analytics, and regression discontinuity. Most households in the treatment locality live above the poverty line (19.85%), whereas a significant portion of households in the comparison locality live below the poverty threshold (41.93%). Gap metrics (0.36–0.44), severity statistics (0.17–0.26), and Watts indices (0.53–0.79) were analysed. Logistic (17) and multivariate (2) regression models were employed to examine the impact of eligibility (-6.8715), socio-economic characteristics (Sig = 9VAR), and economic development variables (3.8208, 0.000, R² = 0.4967). Results indicate that the programme has successfully reduced poverty (0.26%) and fostered economic development (diff=P022.08%, P1=0.08, P2=0.09, w=0.26) by decreasing child malnutrition (0.08%) and mortality rates (0.62%), lowering dropout rates from schooling (e=0.35%, 0.23%, h=0.61%, 0.49%, s=0.84%, 0.87%), improving housing (0.17%), settlement (0.77%), water (0.47%), and sanitation facilities (0.58%), increasing employment (U=-0.70), creating new sources of income (6+), promoting participation in community development initiatives (15+), and enhancing peace and order outcomes (0.12%). Additionally, regression discontinuity design was applied to estimate the overall impact (LATE=0.9386) at various levels of disaggregation. Finally, policy proposals were provided to complement the poverty alleviation and economic development programme.
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